It has a lot to do with people just not being able to afford computers that can run modern games, so they do there gaming at LAN cafes especially in Korea.Originally Posted by Kelvenaru
It has a lot to do with people just not being able to afford computers that can run modern games, so they do there gaming at LAN cafes especially in Korea.
You shouldn't have slept during math class.
11.4/12 = 0.05, or 5%.
A 5% drop is 1/20 of the player base. At that rate, it will take 60 months (20 x 3 months), or 5 years, to lose the entire base (assuming losses in absolute numbers, not percentages).
The further out they get from the expansion, the faster I expect subscriptions to fall.
Tobold said it best.
From here.
Isz on other, unreleased MMOs :
About right, ayuh."Enjoy buying another $60 box for forum access to the next thing to complain about"
I understood it to be around 12c an hour. But, I last checked that ages and ages and ages ago.
Isz on other, unreleased MMOs :
About right, ayuh."Enjoy buying another $60 box for forum access to the next thing to complain about"
Blizzard's total subscriber base is down but I think behind the official data some interesting stats may emerge if the right questions are asked.....
1) Far East including China - the player base there is still playing the Lich King expansion, indeed I think that was only released in the last year, over there I think it is quite popular and the increasing sub base has off set the EU and USA numbers
2) The Cata expansion has not been popular or liked by at least a significant minority of players - many varied reasons far too numerous to list here, but I believe the majority of this sub set of players include many NON hard core raiders and players
3) Players who have left WoW include I think a substantial majority of the sub set above in (2) who have the economic freedom to play MMO games, and leave games to subscribe for another, that is adult players rather than kids. I am pretty sure this may well be the case based on....
i) Several adult guilds I have played with in WoW are either decimated or inactive since Cata
ii) The average (and I stress the AVERAGE) literacy, spelling, and logical debate of all posts on WoWs forum is decreasing - many adult posters tend to spell and grammar check their posts, kids don't bother so much
iii) The adult pop here in Rift is quite high, many players came here from WoW
4) Anyone who uses Technical Analysis in relation to stock market charts can read this link below and make an independent decision. I believe the sharp fall after the Cata release translates into a absolutely classic bear market retreat, in relationship to a 200 day simple moving average. TA chartists know bulls live above, bears live below
http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1
5) There are absolute limits to what you can do with a game that is at least 6 years old, with some design elements stretching back 10 years, without a complete recoding of the game and graphics engine. WoW has not done this, and many players are bored
Last edited by Gardy; 05-11-2011 at 02:01 AM.
The fact that it's not illegal to lie about subscription numbers (or any financial figures at all so long as it's not to law enforcement or shareholders,) combined with the industry norm of doing so makes me inherently doubt Blizzard's claims of active subs. (TBH I doubt everyone's)
That said WOW is still the largest MMO ever and the only way I see that changing anytime soon is if Blizzard were to become controlled by head-crabs in a world without Gordon Freeman and somehow take down the servers.
WOW was released into a market that had no real giants yet, and while I have always disliked it, WOW has a truly universal appeal to gamers and non gamers alike. Rift cannot unseat WOW as it is was not designed by the US mint like WOW was. Rift was designed for mostly veteran MMO players who were looking for something different --and it has done pretty well at that.
WOW's dominant market share is of no real significance to the success of the rest of the industry since they shouldn't be competing with it. WOW is not for everyone and there are still enough gamers out there that people like Trion can make a very nice living off of just off those who grow tired of WOW or other MMOs. There are even more companies who target completely different markets with their specific MMO, and they are still successful.
The secret to success as an MMO dev is actually to NOT compete with WOW directly but to specialize on another aspect. Trion has gone after disenchanted WOWheads with Rift, LOTRO after the Tolkien-ites EVE after misanthropic capitalists and still other games after other sub-markets. Do any of them make as much money as Blizzard? No. Does it matter? No.
You can still make a damn fine profit as an MMO maker without making what Blizzard does though, and honestly I'd rather have the freedom to create something new and different than get stuck with the monotony of being with a single project for 10+ years. Other MMOs are doing about the same as they were before WOW came out --if not better, so WOW gaining or losing subs doesn't matter much so long as your subs don't leave for WOW.
I agree 100%
I think a lot of people have been burned and wasted $100's on previous MMO's that they/we thought would be a great successor to our days in WoW or other MMO's. Most of the people I know from WoW have a wait and see attitude towards Rift, or any other MMO that has been or will be released.
Once server populations increase and stabilize (mergers, anyone?) and people will be able to do what they want when they want (within reason) with enough people to support it, I can see a dramatic increase in subs for Rift. Right now most casual guilds I see have raid attendance issues, dungeon groups take forever to find (even with the lfg tool for dps and support) and the same goes for raid rifts.
Once we can stay busy doing 'relevant' and fun stuff from the moment we log on, and word gets out, I can see Rift getting a huge increase in subs.
Hmm I conditionally agree with that to a point.
I had good fun leveling up which reminded me of my early days in WoW TBC and initial Northrend (when first launched)
But I also think a lot of people want to raid and they see the leveling process as necessary at worse (or a modest part of the game at best) so the real key for Trion and Rift is to get the raids right.
In short, not too hard, not too easy, and a viable option for hard core raider gamers such as a heroic raid version as WoW did in Lich King with ICC
Good post though, nicely objective and balanced
It's 5%, not 0.05%. That means that at that rate they would have nobody left in 57 months or 4.75 years. You were only off by about 5263%.
Hellshade
At the end of December, WoW had 12 million subscribers world-wide. Less than half of these came from NA/EU. The remainder, in China, Russia, Korea, etc. have a different subscriber/pricing models, many of which don't even require the purchase of the game itself. While 6-7 million "subscribers" (if you call shoving currency into game room machines a subscription) numerically seems impressive, they are not nearly as profitable as a NA/EU subs.
The 600K loss is attributed to NA/EU subs consuming Cata content too quickly (a good cover story imo). Since China is still on Wrath, Morhaime couldn't have been talking about that subscriber base when addressing the subscriber loss.
So the 600K subscription loss could represent a greater than 10% loss in NA/EU subscriptions, its most profitable segment, since December. This should be very worrisome to any business, particularly if it were to become a trend, or in the face of increasing competitive pressures (i.e. Rift, SWOTOR, GW2, etc.).
Not to worry however, ATVI did some nifty bookkeeping and reported record earnings in the 1st quarter, in spite of the subscription loss. In addition to suckers paying 2.5 times a subscriber price to buy mounts and other value-added services, a significant several hundred million dollar liquidation of accounts receivables assisted in the record quarter.
Still, your point is well-taken. They will survive and thrive for quite a while.
Last edited by Gladius; 05-11-2011 at 09:36 PM.
Excellent analysis IMHO. Agreed on all points.Blizzard's total subscriber base is down but I think behind the official data some interesting stats may emerge if the right questions are asked.....
1) Far East including China - the player base there is still playing the Lich King expansion, indeed I think that was only released in the last year, over there I think it is quite popular and the increasing sub base has off set the EU and USA numbers
2) The Cata expansion has not been popular or liked by at least a significant minority of players - many varied reasons far too numerous to list here, but I believe the majority of this sub set of players include many NON hard core raiders and players
3) Players who have left WoW include I think a substantial majority of the sub set above in (2) who have the economic freedom to play MMO games, and leave games to subscribe for another, that is adult players rather than kids. I am pretty sure this may well be the case based on....
i) Several adult guilds I have played with in WoW are either decimated or inactive since Cata
ii) The average (and I stress the AVERAGE) literacy, spelling, and logical debate of all posts on WoWs forum is decreasing - many adult posters tend to spell and grammar check their posts, kids don't bother so much
iii) The adult pop here in Rift is quite high, many players came here from WoW
4) Anyone who uses Technical Analysis in relation to stock market charts can read this link below and make an independent decision. I believe the sharp fall after the Cata release translates into a absolutely classic bear market retreat, in relationship to a 200 day simple moving average. TA chartists know bulls live above, bears live below
http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1
5) There are absolute limits to what you can do with a game that is at least 6 years old, with some design elements stretching back 10 years, without a complete recoding of the game and graphics engine. WoW has not done this, and many players are bored
nope. if it keeps dropping it will be exponential as in 5^x as in x in months.
used to be a proud member of Rift Runners till madness took over.
I hope you had time to say goodbye to your friends etc since your account most probably just got hacked. LOL
lol 600k out of 12 million?
Honestly, I thought the best system for hardmodes was the one that was implemented with Ulduar. I don't think you should have to do a "heroic" version of an instance, but the Ulduar progression was much better imo. You got to clear the dungeon and "activate" the hardmodes of whatever bosses you wanted to down that week. You could clear the dungeon and at the same time, stop and do hardmodes in the same dungeon that you are doing normal modes.
Honestly, if Trion implements a hardmode system for raids, I think this would be the best way to do it.
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