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  Click here to go to the first Rift Team post in this thread.   Thread: Why RIFT is going to die in 4.0 - compared to the big 3

  1. #151
    Prophet of Telara Haruchai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Night Dream View Post
    Just purchased the expansion for 17 but I would say that the EU population is smaller than the WoW server I`m currently playing on but it could also be that WoW just encourages people more to go out into the world doing things and create a better atmosphere of "being alive".
    MMO's need population to survive. Even though, in my opinion, Rift is far better than wow, wow had reached a point where the community becomes self-sustaining (the relationships in-game become more important than the game). Rift hadn't reached that point, but was close, then Trion made and kept making, and continue to make bad decisions.

    The problem that Trion has now is how to get numbers into the game while making a profit or at least covering costs. I don't think they can do both. They seem to be trying to have it both ways and it will probably backfire as they inexorably alienate the players that have been financially supporting them which will inevitably lead to more costs/charges being placed upon the remaining paying players as the group shrinks.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Night Dream View Post
    Just purchased the expansion for 17€ but I would say that the EU population is smaller than the WoW server I`m currently playing on but it could also be that WoW just encourages people more to go out into the world doing things and create a better atmosphere of "being alive".
    There isn't much of a difference between the active EU and active NA population, don't get deluded that "just because it's NA" there's a huge difference or something like that. From my counts, active EU players at any given time is at around 1k, on NA it's like 1,2-1,3k, not much of a difference imo.
    Last edited by Fia; 08-06-2016 at 06:25 PM.
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  3. #153
    Plane Touched Doveblack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haruchai View Post
    I see very few with it and TONS without it, checkmate! Seriously, "TONS" used in a public forum as an indication of numbers? You either enjoy being ridiculed or have no idea, either one is not a plus.
    Its just as accurate as people giving actual numbers that they have no way of actually knowing. Get it yet? Rgi missed it too lol.

    "You have no idea" about population mapping or the financial health of the game if you're using the leaderboards of one world event to extrapolate a global Rift server population. What about guys like my guildies who didn't grind to participate in the event, but just bought all the stuff?

    People like that don't get counted in your population numbers guess, but they paid hundreds for one event. Oops i guess your counting method is not only incomplete, but distorts the spending pattern "data" that's also being fabricated in this thread.

    In short: show us some REAL population/financial data or you're just trying to create a false consensus logical fallacy(go google that). And google some stuff about population fitness landscapes mapped in phase space as well.
    Last edited by Doveblack; 08-06-2016 at 10:48 PM.
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  4. #154
    Ascendant Meteorblade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doveblack View Post
    It sounds more like people who don't want to buy the new pack are saying "well no one will buy this pack and Rift's population will collapse" in an attempt to discourage people from buying the pack, and create a self fulfilling prophecy through manipulation and propaganda.
    Well, some of us are quoting something Trion's Director of Community Relations said here, where Brasse said that only 7-15% of players of good F2P games ever spend money on them. As that means 85-93% of Rift's players will never spend money on it, you're looking at losing perhaps 9/10ths of the current player base when 4.0 hits. Regardless of what the current player count is, reducing it to a tenth of that is a very quick route to having an empty game. What we're asking of Trion is why they think that's a good business decision.

  5. #155
    Prophet of Telara Zaber's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meteorblade View Post
    Well, some of us are quoting something Trion's Director of Community Relations said here, where Brasse said that only 7-15% of players of good F2P games ever spend money on them. As that means 85-93% of Rift's players will never spend money on it, you're looking at losing perhaps 9/10ths of the current player base when 4.0 hits. Regardless of what the current player count is, reducing it to a tenth of that is a very quick route to having an empty game. What we're asking of Trion is why they think that's a good business decision.
    If anything I think there business decision on this just by looking at Rift NT. We ask for a lot stuff to be put in the game. We ask things to be balance. It may hand on limited amount of dev on hand. So making the change may push people to spend a little more have a reason too. So Trion can put more in to Rift, like more devm more content, and more bug fix. Who know I'm just guessing here.
    Last edited by Zaber; 08-06-2016 at 11:21 PM.

  6. #156
    Ascendant Flashmemory's Avatar
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    Meta data can be found on steam charts. Current average is around 500 active players- 700 active players and in decline over the last 5 months. They have problems with player retention as the game has an underlining goal to influence direct purchases through the cash shop in order to catch up. They do have players who want to play the game but are very discouraged from playing the game because of overwhelming options and cash shop.

    Also, considering that they had better server stability after the first few weeks of head start with Million of active players vs. the dismal amount now.. I have absolutely no idea why servers are more terrible in NT than in Planes of Telara. I know many players who simply refuse to play a game that is not optimized for the latest technology. For such an old game it should be smooth as butter. They even eliminated CQ for the most part and servers are still lagging, crashing and there is reported "features" that remain persistent for months and even year over year.
    Last edited by Flashmemory; 08-07-2016 at 01:16 AM.

  7. #157
    Plane Touched Doveblack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flashmemory View Post
    Meta data can be found on steam charts. Current average is around 500 active players- 700 active players and in decline over the last 5 months. They have problems with player retention as the game has an underlining goal to influence direct purchases through the cash shop in order to catch up. They do have players who want to play the game but are very discouraged from playing the game because of overwhelming options and cash shop.

    Also, considering that they had better server stability after the first few weeks of head start with Million of active players vs. the dismal amount now.. I have absolutely no idea why servers are more terrible in NT than in Planes of Telara. I know many players who simply refuse to play a game that is not optimized for the latest technology. For such an old game it should be smooth as butter. They even eliminated CQ for the most part and servers are still lagging, crashing and there is reported "features" that remain persistent for months and even year over year.
    Thats 500-700 people playing through Steam only, right? Not everyone who plays Rift has Steam. How can you base your analysis off of such poor data? The leaderboards from a single event and Steam data for a Glyph game that doesnt require steam?

    Thats hardly worth taking seriously.
    Last edited by Doveblack; 08-07-2016 at 04:24 AM.
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  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doveblack View Post
    Thats 500-700 people playing through Steam only, right? Not everyone who plays Rift has Steam. How can you base your analysis off of such poor data? The leaderboards from a single event and Steam data for a Glyph game that doesnt require steam?
    You cannot deduct the absolute number of players from the steam charts. But you can look at the steam charts of other games, and compare the relative numbers. In this comparison Rift is not looking quite so healthy.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elayara View Post
    You cannot deduct the absolute number of players from the steam charts. But you can look at the steam charts of other games, and compare the relative numbers. In this comparison Rift is not looking quite so healthy.
    Even Wildstar has like 50% more players on Steam and this is a game which makes like 0 profit if you look at the ncsoft reports.

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Night Dream View Post
    Even Wildstar has like 50% more players on Steam and this is a game which makes like 0 profit if you look at the ncsoft reports.
    Without knowing what percent of people who play Rift do it through Steam, those numbers are pretty meaningless.

    It's sounding a lot like the people who don't want to buy the new expansion are coming out of the woodwork and telling others how this will destroy Rift and no one is playing, in an attempt to prevent other people from buying the pack.

    Its like when "researchers" or economists create a fraudulent study to show whatever they want the cherry picked data to show. It isn't actually useful to anyone but the ones who stand to benefit from the fraudulent study. This thread is just filled with logical fallacies.

    Without some real numbers, all this thread is doing is creating and reinforcing a false consensus.

    All the negativity(which isnt backed by REAL data) may actually be read by some people who would have otherwise bought the expansion, but now won't, as the result of people throwing around fake numbers.

    So the meaningless numbers and extrapolations may do real damage to the game by causing people not to buy the pack, who otherwise would.
    Last edited by Doveblack; 08-07-2016 at 05:53 AM.
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  11. #161
    Ascendant Artewig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doveblack View Post
    in an attempt to prevent other people from buying the pack.
    lololololololol....

    I swear I die every time I see these posts. No one is actually out to destroy the game. I'd argue that quite a few players commenting are going to buy the expansion if they haven't already. While this isn't as big of a decision as going f2p, it's a big decision nonetheless. As consumers with a vested interest in the company's future, it's natural for them to want to understand what this business decision is based off of, especially when it contradicts the information available to the public.
    Last edited by Artewig; 08-07-2016 at 06:31 AM.
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  12. #162
    Prophet of Telara Zaber's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Night Dream View Post
    Even Wildstar has like 50% more players on Steam and this is a game which makes like 0 profit if you look at the ncsoft reports.
    Wildstar from last year was making little to no money. It pick up little when got on steam. Then a lot Dev for Wildstar are giving a lot for free not sure how long Wildstar can stay like that. I did look in there cash shop seen no reason to spend money on it. If there nothing I want in it maybe 1 newbe pack I seen.

    Then again can't judge everything just on steam only. May have even more people playing off of steam if people more then just one Trion game. Do to Glyph in how many need to install it on steam then just have 1 time off of steam to play more then 1 game from Trion.
    Last edited by Zaber; 08-07-2016 at 07:09 AM.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by keepor View Post
    I think most people will invest the 18$ for another 2 years.
    I think a lot depends if everything will be in those damned lock boxes or not. I like rift as a form of entertainment for a few hours a week, but that's it.

  14. #164
    Plane Touched Doveblack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Artewig View Post
    lololololololol....

    I swear I die every time I see these posts. No one is actually out to destroy the game. I'd argue that quite a few players commenting are going to buy the expansion if they haven't already. While this isn't as big of a decision as going f2p, it's a big decision nonetheless. As consumers with a vested interest in the company's future, it's natural for them to want to understand what this business decision is based off of, especially when it contradicts the information available to the public.
    Thank you for giving a perfect example of the kind of cherry picking and taking things out of context to make a "point" that i was talking about. You didn't even bother to quote a complete SENTENCE lol.

    Consumers don't typically have a "vested" interest in companies they buy stuff from, unless they're stockholders as well. If consumers want the market for the goods they purchase to have better products, they need to buy the best quality goods they can afford.

    Buying a lot of cheap junk and only caring about price is precisely what has undermined the west's economies. Applying the "I want everything as cheap as possible or free mentality" to games leads to the same end result: poor quality goods and a destroyed economy. If you study complex systems like markets, societies, weather patterns, you will learn that a lot of the same rather simple rules govern the behavior of massively complex systems.

    Things which are sensitively dependent on initial conditions(google it) are changable, with only minor inputs leading to massive changes in later iterations.

    It is perfectly plausible to state that a sufficient number of players, who would otherwise buy the pack, will not, as the result of reading the kind of nonsense that people are extrapolating based on cherry picked numbers, thus creating a feedback loop which disincentivizes even more people from purchasing.

    Personally, i prefer to think for myself, so i already bought 3 deluxe editions directly(further invalidating the Steam numbers).

    It is true that it is a big decision to require a purchase for the new content. I don't think it will turn off people who ALREADY pay for the game, to pay some more into it. I've been playing videogames since i got my NES and Genesis and my 186 PC. I think this is probably the one ive spent the most on, and i certainly think it is overall high quality.

    It seems likely to me that the people in charge of Rift would have looked at the ACTUAL numbers and the massive amount of "big data" analytics that could easily be done given that they host the game, and said "well it is in the best interests of our future to make the pack paid".

    Anyone who thinks they did it on a whim is seriously misinformed about how business decisions like that are made.
    Last edited by Doveblack; 08-07-2016 at 07:33 AM.
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  15. #165
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    Those who have committed time and money to the game will. Those who want everything free are doubtful. The choice is yours. Complaining will get you nowhere. It's decision time folks. I have purchased and I think a lot have done so too.
    Last edited by MoMo1; 08-07-2016 at 07:56 AM.

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