You have quite a few things correct here, such as during ED you won't wait 15sec to refresh because that means less ED up time which is a loss. During the round of dots you refresh early the 1% SP is a DPS gain, however, once refreshed before ED runs out there should be no reason to refresh sooner unless the refresh was done with Persist and a
VB comes off CD during SL-D
There are many situations in various fights and for progression sake you should always adapt your spec, I'm not saying 2/3 is always worse, just most of the time. Also, it lacks flexibility, 3/3 pulls ahead any time there is multidot or AOE situations which is far more bosses than isn't.
Furthermore the big kicker here that many are overlooking are crits, I did a handful of parses with both 3/3 and 2/3 on a dummy, self buffed, no consume and only once did 2/3 pull ahead and it was just good RNG more than anything else. On some parses 3/3 barely pulled ahead and on others it was a rather noticeable difference.
The reason I prefer 3/3 for even ST is the rotation I use allows for
VB on CD as well as the DoTs going to 1s most of the time barring some mechanic that I will have to refresh sooner to prevent loss of DoTs or take advantage of a flaring or something like that.
Sub 50% 2/3 is the better choice, that's a fairly obvious fact but again this is situational. There are indeed several fights that have very important burn phases sub 50% and for those fights you should use 2/3, however, there are just as many if not more that are the opposite, they have pre-50% burn phases not to mention this is also the time of flaring and for those fights or fights with more than 1 target 3/3 wins.
So, in conclusion I do agree that 3/3 is NOT always the best solution BUT the better MAJORITY of the time it is. There aren't many fights that have post 50% burn phases AND only 1 target, but there are some and if your guild is progressing on them then you should do 2/3.
Back to the crit part, if you're running 3/3 even on ST, for those times that you let your DoTs tick down to the 1s if atrophy is to crit it is a significant DPS increase, this isn't that rare beings my, yours should be as well, is above 25% which gives a 1 in 4 chance and though it may seem small this happens more than you'd think and yields a very nice gain.
I would gladly share my parses with ACT on actual raid bosses but at this time my guild would prefer to keep them confidential at this time, that may change in the future, not sure.
If I decide to start streaming publicly and the guild permits it I would open it up to the forum to see how things go, what I do, etc.
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