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Thread: Merc/nonmerc win/loss % and you

  1. #1
    Plane Walker
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    Default Merc/nonmerc win/loss % and you

    Some time ago I started to note down my wf wins and losses. Soon It was obvious Im getting merced more and my loss ratio as a merc is huge.

    Total games played still started to write down wins and losses : 70

    Merced 39 times ( 55,7% of total games )
    Won 13 games, 33,3% win chance as merc
    Lost 26 games, 66,6% loss chance as merc


    Not merced 31 times ( 44,3% of total games )
    Won 18 games, 58% win chance as not merced
    Lost 13 games, 42% loss chance as not merced

    All games are with PUGs.

    Anyone else running wf win/loss statistics as hobby?

  2. #2
    Ascendant charliekelly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drakedog View Post
    Some time ago I started to note down my wf wins and losses. Soon It was obvious Im getting merced more and my loss ratio as a merc is huge.

    Total games played still started to write down wins and losses : 70

    Merced 39 times ( 55,7% of total games )
    Won 13 games, 33,3% win chance as merc
    Lost 26 games, 66,6% loss chance as merc


    Not merced 31 times ( 44,3% of total games )
    Won 18 games, 58% win chance as not merced
    Lost 13 games, 42% loss chance as not merced

    All games are with PUGs.

    Anyone else running wf win/loss statistics as hobby?
    I was going to, but I gave up after a couple hundred matches without losing a game.

  3. #3
    Ascendant Violacea's Avatar
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    I always did it to try to prove a point and no matter what I did, the longer I kept the stats going the closer the deviated to being 50/50 in the grand scheme.

    Dem odds. Between a few of the people here for xmas we all had 25 scratch off tickets with general odds of 1 winner every 4.03 or so. Just couldn't escape the fact we won 6/25 of our tickets.

    It sounds silly but, I imagine even 100 games is a ridiculously small sample for Rifts sake. Personal luck and random outcome can push the results either way, but it doesn't create some correlation just because some experience causation. Statistically, probably just as many people who experience the inverse of the odds you do.
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  4. #4
    Plane Walker Stirby's Avatar
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    Sample size is too small. There isn't actually a "merc" system any more, it's red vs. blue and the game doesn't put you on a side by checking your faction, so in the long you should not see any wild imbalances in wins/losses while merced.
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    Ascendant Taptap's Avatar
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    I didn't play on Christmas but it seems to go in streaks that defy the rules of lottery, lol. I'm almost always (I swear!) the only one of maybe 3 players on my team that has all slots filled, and of those that do it is super rare to find any with Warlord gear. I've never seen anyone with Myrmidon gear when I've looked. I don't care anyway, unless the match is going to be a definite waste of my Patron vials and I look at the starting lineup of the opposing team and see 3 clerics when we have none.. then I might stone out and go spend the vials chasing IS instead until the soul stone cd is done. But doesn't matter after next week; I'm letting my Patron account run out and, besides, I'm starting design of a new idea for real life after the 1st of next month and will be playing less because of that. Rift is boring me, lol, makes me pay more attention to making money than giving it to them.
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    Ascendant Gunzip's Avatar
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    If you pug warfronts, expect to lose on an average 80% of your games, that's just the nature of playing with terrible people and the trash gear they normally have. That's my experience so far.
    Last edited by Gunzip; 12-26-2013 at 06:05 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    I believe Assassin DoTs are uncleansable.

    It's still a terrible PvP spec compared to Marksman, though.

  7. #7
    Ascendant Appendy's Avatar
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    I haven't done WF much in a long time, partially due to no longer needing the daily/weekly marks (I'm now buying myrmidon items for wardrobe/transmorgs) and due to working my buttox off this month due to the Holiday Season... so when I do queue, I'm always merc'd on defiant side, I hardly ever see any familiar faces/names, and the scoreboards look pathetic on both sides. Like, what the hell. Do the queues get better for me if I show my face more?

    I seriously have no desire to queue for warfronts if that's the new behavior of the queuing system.



    edit to add: I always queue WF outside of CQ times so that I can anticipate more people queuing.
    Last edited by Appendy; 12-26-2013 at 07:23 AM.

  8. #8
    Ascendant Gunzip's Avatar
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    Expect to be grouped with players that have quest blues/greens on with in game pre-builds.
    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    I believe Assassin DoTs are uncleansable.

    It's still a terrible PvP spec compared to Marksman, though.

  9. #9
    Plane Touched Malcanthe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stirby View Post
    Sample size is too small. There isn't actually a "merc" system any more, it's red vs. blue and the game doesn't put you on a side by checking your faction, so in the long you should not see any wild imbalances in wins/losses while merced.
    That's the weird part, for the first time someone posted a sample size that actually is big enough (see R code below):

    Spoiler!


    Being merc'd is significant at the 5% level, the usual publication standard. So congratulations Drakedog, you have "proven" than being merc'd actually matters! (Or you're in the bottom 4% of luck, or you miscounted )

  10. #10
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    What I conclude from your test is that you subconsciously don't try as hard when you get Merced because you assume a negative outcome, even though its random.

  11. #11
    Plane Touched Malcanthe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caldern View Post
    What I conclude from your test is that you subconsciously don't try as hard when you get Merced because you assume a negative outcome, even though its random.
    Good point, but that placebo effect must be pretty strong to produce such a disparity.

    Drakedog, your publication has been rejected because of methodological flaws. Your study needs to be blind or double-blind. Usually this just means the experimenter lacks certain information, but because that information is available on the screen when you play rift, you literally need to be blind. So just queue for another 70 WFs blindfolded (and with sound off), and let us know the results, thx.

  12. #12
    Ascendant Fujitasix's Avatar
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    Competent healers still win warfronts, so if you're queuing as a healer, your win ratio will likely be higher.
    Currently playing Beermaid lvl 65 War

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    Ascendant Gunzip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fujitasix View Post
    Competent healers still win warfronts, so if you're queuing as a healer, your win ratio will likely be higher.
    Not necessarily true, I queue up as chloro quite a bit, and let me tell you, when 90% of your team mates are 17-18k health Marksman rogues, you're not winning anything, especially if they're doing below average pvp dps.
    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    I believe Assassin DoTs are uncleansable.

    It's still a terrible PvP spec compared to Marksman, though.

  14. #14
    Rift Chaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunzip View Post
    Not necessarily true, I queue up as chloro quite a bit, and let me tell you, when 90% of your team mates are 17-18k health Marksman rogues, you're not winning anything, especially if they're doing below average pvp dps.
    I can vouch for this, I can run sentinel/defiler, have other cleric healers on my team who are in warlord/mymirdon but believe it or not, there are stupid 27-30k hp clerics out there still spamming healing cataract/healing communion. Then the rest of my team is people who are just barely 21-22k health if even that. You could have the best healers in the world but if your dps is 20k marksman and other stereotypical awful people, you're not winning any battles that match.


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    Ascendant Taptap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Appendy View Post
    I haven't done WF much in a long time, partially due to no longer needing the daily/weekly marks (I'm now buying myrmidon items for wardrobe/transmorgs) and due to working my buttox off this month due to the Holiday Season... so when I do queue, I'm always merc'd on defiant side, I hardly ever see any familiar faces/names, and the scoreboards look pathetic on both sides. Like, what the hell. Do the queues get better for me if I show my face more?

    I seriously have no desire to queue for warfronts if that's the new behavior of the queuing system.



    edit to add: I always queue WF outside of CQ times so that I can anticipate more people queuing.
    No. If you show your face more then the system will conclude that based, on whatever because they won't tell us what, you should be able to carry your entire team of pugs that have empty slots and bolstered stuff (they don't know the runes don't get included with bolstered gear, and they think slots with nothing in them do get bolstered). So you will get stuck with those teams time and again, and the other team will get quick queues for their pregrouped players and a huge score lead from jump before the system finally finds another pregroup to put on your team but by then it will be too late. Play about 50 warfronts and see for yourself! Will the enemy team zerg you, you alone, and no one else because you're almost the only geared player? Do your other team members have enough power from gear to even damage the enemy no matter how hard they try?
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