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Thread: Fix Random Dungeon Queuing!

  1. #1
    Rift Chaser
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    Default Fix Random Dungeon Queuing!

    Can you make the dungeon selecting algorithm at least somewhat random? I just tried to queue for a random with 4 other guildies. We get Storm Breaker Protocal. Our least favorite dungeon, but whatever, we run it. Then we requeue and guess what?! SBP again! Kill first boss and requeue. SBP again! This time someone bails, we get the 30 min lockout. 2 folks have to go. We requeue with 3 of us. SBP a 4th time in a row! One of the PUG's we got left before we could. Now we're waiting 10 more min before we can requeue once again.

    Obviously the dungeon picker is not random. The statistical likelyhood of that occurring is one in 2401. I once got Darkening Deeps 5 or 6 times in a row back in the day.

    Can you please insert a safeguard in the dungeon picker that attempts to prevent back to back running of the same dungeon for all members? So even if 5 people that join all ran 5 separate dungeons previously, 2 would still be "safe" under this method.
    No Guild ~ 4/4 GA - 4/4 HM's - 5/5 EE - 4/4 FT - 4/4 ToDQ ~ Greybriar
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  2. #2
    Ascendant Crithappens's Avatar
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    And you know what the chances are of getting SBP, then TotS, then EC, then UBF are?

    1 in 2401

    So by your logic I guess this means that if anyone sees this sequence of dungeons then the queuer must not be random.

    Obviously, this is not the case.

    Random randomness is random.
    Last edited by Crithappens; 03-18-2013 at 04:44 PM.
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  3. #3
    RIFT Guide Writer Muspel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zadozex View Post
    Obviously the dungeon picker is not random. The statistical likelyhood of that occurring is one in 2401.
    First off, the chances of getting the same dungeon four times in a row is only one in 343. (7^3, not 7^4, since it doesn't become a streak until after the first).

    Second, I don't think you understand what "random" means.

    The fact that unlikely things can happen is in fact one of the hallmarks of probability.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    First off, the chances of getting the same dungeon four times in a row is only one in 343. (7^3, not 7^4, since it doesn't become a streak until after the first).

    Second, I don't think you understand what "random" means.

    The fact that unlikely things can happen is in fact one of the hallmarks of probability.
    Statistically, the first occurrence still counts. That's like saying the odds of flipping heads twice in a row is 50% because the first one doesn't count. That's silly. Secondly, while yes, it is technically "random" that this can occur, it's not exactly a desirable outcome. An outcome which could easily be coded around to avoid.
    No Guild ~ 4/4 GA - 4/4 HM's - 5/5 EE - 4/4 FT - 4/4 ToDQ ~ Greybriar
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  5. #5
    RIFT Guide Writer Muspel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zadozex View Post
    Statistically, the first occurrence still counts. That's like saying the odds of flipping heads twice in a row is 50% because the first one doesn't count. That's silly. Secondly, while yes, it is technically "random" that this can occur, it's not exactly a desirable outcome. An outcome which could easily be coded around to avoid.
    You seem to not be very familiar with probability. You're correct that the odds of getting heads twice in a row is not 50%, because you're specifying a single outcome. But the odds of getting the same result twice in a row is 50%.

    Think about it. The possible outcomes are:

    TT
    TH
    HT
    HH

    Of the four possibilities, two of them are homogenous. Since each outcome has the same possibility, the chances of getting the same result twice in a row is 1 in 2, or 50%. Similarly, the odds of getting the same dungeon X number of times in a row is:

    number of dungeons ^ (number of times - 1)

    7 ^ 3

    343

    Probability is deceptive. Yes, it's very unlikely that this will happen. But every possible outcome is unlikely, and one of them has to happen. This is similar to confirmation bias-- even though what happened to you was perfectly normal from a mathematical standpoint, you noticed it because it was unusual to you.

    Any given sequence of four dungeons is equally likely, assuming that you're queueing with a full group of 5 each time. (If you're queueing solo, the numbers can get skewed, because other people may be queueing for specific dungeons, or some dungeons may have people leave more often than others which pulls in replacement players.)
    Last edited by Muspel; 03-18-2013 at 06:03 PM.

  6. #6
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    Since I am utterly bad at maths, and this part has already been discussed, let me add this:

    It is not completely random. At least not unless you have a full group of 5 people and queue random. If you're less than 5 players:

    Your 4 man group is queueing random, the next person in the queue has specifically selected SBP. You get paired up with this player and you get SBP. For you, it's random, for the specific-queuer, it's a specific dungeon without bonus.

    Next up 3 man group, 2 slots where someone might have queued specific, etc.

    Anyways, it can happen, and mostly people queue for specific dungeons because they need a specific piece of loot from the last boss, and, as improbably to you as it might seem, there's people enjoying this dungeon. ;)

    Edit: grrr.. I think muspel just edited in what I wanted to point out
    Last edited by Mandarb; 03-18-2013 at 06:15 PM.

  7. #7
    RIFT Guide Writer TheGrinnz's Avatar
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    As has been stated, if they made it less likely to get the same dungeon several times in a row, that would in fact be less random. Mainly the issue arises from having only 7 dungeons to choose from, and this still happened plenty back when we had a few more than that before SL.
    Last edited by TheGrinnz; 03-18-2013 at 09:34 PM.

  8. #8
    Sword of Telara
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    These threads always crack me up. Anyone familiar with probability and statistics knows runs of a number happen all of the time.

    Yes, if you flip a coin 1000 times, you'll end up pretty close to 50/50. Feel free to flip a coin yourself, and you'll find long streaks of heads (or tails) at times and not some nice looking HTHTHT type of stuff.

  9. #9
    Plane Touched
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    It's not always about the numbers. If you didn't have a full 5 each time, one of the members that it picked up for you could have been specifically queued for SBP instead of random. To you it was random to get SBP, for them it wasn't. You still get the reward for a random, they do not.

  10. #10
    Shadowlander Wyswig's Avatar
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    Default This really doesn't need a treatise on probabilty

    This simply needs to be moved to "round robin" approach where a just completed dungeon is removed from the possible random choices for the next queue. Completed dungeons are retained in this lockout for a set time period (3-6 hours) before the whole process is reset.

    Simple enough to code and implement if they would take the time....

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    You seem to not be very familiar with probability. You're correct that the odds of getting heads twice in a row is not 50%, because you're specifying a single outcome. But the odds of getting the same result twice in a row is 50%....
    Both right, just context. Same dungeon 4x in a row <> SBP 4x in a row. I interpreted "The statistical likelyhood of that occurring" meaning SBP, since no one likes running that instance anyway.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyswig View Post
    This simply needs to be moved to "round robin" approach where a just completed dungeon is removed from the possible random choices for the next queue. Completed dungeons are retained in this lockout for a set time period (3-6 hours) before the whole process is reset.

    Simple enough to code and implement if they would take the time....
    This is exactly what I am suggesting. I am not getting hung up in the statistics of the matter. Yes, your math for getting any 2 4 in a row is 1 in 343 and getting SBP specifically was my number. The fact of the matter is getting a dungeon 2 times in a row is annoying. Is it within the parameters of the word "Random", yes, yes it is, but is it a desired outcome and can it be avoided? Also yes!

    Now, some may debate the validity of the statement "people don't like getting the same dungeon 2 times in a row", but 3 or 4 times?! Come on! Safeguards can easily be built into the system while still retaining the random flavor and it will make it "feel" more random, though not technically be so.

    Also, it would be nice if their was a mechanism by which a group can agree to disband and only get the 10 minute timer to wait to requeue. Currently, the first person leaves and gets 30 min and the other 4 can leave and get the 10. That works fine in PUG situations, but when going with a full guild group, it's an annoyance. Generally we just kill the first boss and requeue, which is less than 10 min, but sometimes we just want to leave and do IA's, CQ's, etc. while we wait the 10 min and the first person that leaves is just out of luck.
    No Guild ~ 4/4 GA - 4/4 HM's - 5/5 EE - 4/4 FT - 4/4 ToDQ ~ Greybriar
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  13. #13
    RIFT Guide Writer Muspel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zadozex View Post
    Also, it would be nice if their was a mechanism by which a group can agree to disband and only get the 10 minute timer to wait to requeue. Currently, the first person leaves and gets 30 min and the other 4 can leave and get the 10. That works fine in PUG situations, but when going with a full guild group, it's an annoyance. Generally we just kill the first boss and requeue, which is less than 10 min, but sometimes we just want to leave and do IA's, CQ's, etc. while we wait the 10 min and the first person that leaves is just out of luck.
    Doesn't votekick work for this? I'm fairly sure being kicked doesn't give you the deserter debuff, although it's been so long since I was kicked from a dungeon I'm not really sure.
    Last edited by Muspel; 03-19-2013 at 11:58 AM.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    Doesn't votekick work for this? I'm fairly sure being kicked doesn't give you the deserter debuff, although it's been so long since I was kicked from a dungeon I'm not really sure.
    You have to wait 10 minutes before you can vote kick. Although, now that I think about it, you can instantly vote kick people that are disconnected. Maybe I'll just have guildies log out, vote kick them, everyone else can then leave safely. A pain, but a workaround I guess.
    Last edited by Zadozex; 03-19-2013 at 12:00 PM.
    No Guild ~ 4/4 GA - 4/4 HM's - 5/5 EE - 4/4 FT - 4/4 ToDQ ~ Greybriar
    Zefu - Warrior
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  15. #15
    Prophet of Telara Lewin's Avatar
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    Doesn't really fix the issue of randomness,.but maybe they could change it where you still get random rewards when specific qued as long as you are qued for at least 5 dungeons. Since it is specific it would still take lockouts into account so you could do it at most twice a day, but at least you would know for sure that you aren't geting sbp for those two.
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