Closed Thread
Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: Is Cache Finder broken?

  1. #1
    Shadowlander
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    36

    Default Is Cache Finder broken?

    I'm 0/6 today getting a bonus Infernal Mark when turning in a random dungeon daily. The chance of missing 6 in a row is 2.8%, so may just be back luck. Was wondering if anyone can confirm they have been receiving bonus infernal marks?

    The bonus plaque chance has also seemed abnormally low but not really worth worrying about.

    Thanks

  2. #2
    Plane Touched
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    273

    Default

    The bonus plaque/mark chance only applies to dungeon boss drops, not quest rewards. So no, you didn't have a 2,8% chane to not get any extra marks, you had a 100% chance of that happening.
    Quack?

  3. #3
    Shadowlander
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    36

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Killerkonnat View Post
    The bonus plaque/mark chance only applies to dungeon boss drops, not quest rewards. So no, you didn't have a 2,8% chane to not get any extra marks, you had a 100% chance of that happening.
    That's completely false, it's always applied to the quest reward. And I did finally get one on my 7th try.

  4. #4
    Shadowlander insidmal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    39

    Default

    How is it 2.8% chance after 6? The odds don't change over time, it's 45% each time - so your chances of not getting it are 55% every time.. it doesn't change cause you've done more.. and yeah definitely gotten them from rewards
    Last edited by insidmal; 04-18-2012 at 04:01 PM.

  5. #5
    Shadowlander
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    36

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by insidmal View Post
    How is it 2.8% chance after 6? The odds don't change over time, it's 45% each time - so your chances of not getting it are 55% every time.. it doesn't change cause you've done more.. and yeah definitely gotten them from rewards
    Chance of 6 misses in a row is (1 - 0.45) ^ 6 = 2.8%.

    Anyway this thread can be closed it's been resolved.

  6. #6
    Rift Disciple RyanCE's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    172

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Melodyx View Post
    Chance of 6 misses in a row is (1 - 0.45) ^ 6 = 2.8%.

    Anyway this thread can be closed it's been resolved.
    Probabilities don't work like that. You have a 45% chance to get one 6 times in a row but none of those chance events influences any of the others.

    It's called the Gambler's fallacy.

  7. #7
    Rift Disciple
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    122

    Default

    Hey there,

    We have closed this thread as the OP has found their answer!

    If anyone has questions or concerns about this thread closure, please feel free to contact us at community@riftgame.com.

    Thank you!

Closed Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts