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Thread: So was crucia's chosen yanked or something?

  1. #1
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    Default So was crucia's chosen yanked or something?

    I started counting 15 days ago because I noticed it had been a while, and it's been mutant progeny or undying hunger every day since.

    inb4 drr is just random ur dum ecks dee. The probability of one of three events with equal chance not happening 15 times in a row is (2/3)^15 = 0.00228365826.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by zartosht View Post
    I started counting 15 days ago because I noticed it had been a while, and it's been mutant progeny or undying hunger every day since.

    inb4 drr is just random ur dum ecks dee. The probability of one of three events with equal chance not happening 15 times in a row is (2/3)^15 = 0.00228365826.
    Actually it already happened the probability is 100%. Not to mention that number isnt that small when you are talking about a 15day rolling sample of what? 10 servers that have been running that same random 3 dailys for how many months?
    Last edited by sancin; 09-03-2013 at 06:42 PM.

  3. #3
    Champion of Telara The Real Viz Shady's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancin View Post
    Actually it already happened the probability is 100%. Not to mention that number isnt that small when you are talking about a 15day rolling sample of what? 10 servers that have been running that same random 3 dailys for how many months?
    someone doesn't understand probability..

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Real Viz Shady View Post
    someone doesn't understand probability..

    Somebody doesn't

    Last 15 days on hypothetical server X the order was a,a,b,c,c,c,c,c,b,c,a,b,c,c,a the chances of that happening before the first event happened was (1/3)^15 = 6.97E-8 but nobody would be complaining because it "looks" random. You can see that each 15 day string has a miniscule chance to happen however 1 string will end up with a 100% chance of happening because 1 random string will have to occur.

    Calculating probabilites after an event has happened is a waste of time.
    Last edited by sancin; 09-04-2013 at 04:32 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sancin View Post

    Calculating probabilites after an event has happened is a waste of time.
    No, because it tells us the likelihood is that crucia's chosen is not being selected anymore for some reason. By the way, the odds on it being randomly skipped are now (2/3)^16.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zartosht View Post
    No, because it tells us the likelihood is that crucia's chosen is not being selected anymore for some reason. By the way, the odds on it being randomly skipped are now (2/3)^16.

    The chances of it being skipped are the same it has been for every other day 2/3. If you understood that (2/3)^15 you posted earlier you would know that.
    Last edited by sancin; 09-04-2013 at 05:14 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zartosht View Post
    No, because it tells us the likelihood is that crucia's chosen is not being selected anymore for some reason. By the way, the odds on it being randomly skipped are now (2/3)^16.
    Not entirely sure that holds up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sancin View Post
    The chances of it being skipped are the same it has been for every other day 2/3. If you understood that (2/3)^15 you posted earlier you would know that.
    Oh, you're trolling. It all makes sense now.

  9. #9
    RIFT Guide Writer Muspel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zartosht View Post
    No, because it tells us the likelihood is that crucia's chosen is not being selected anymore for some reason. By the way, the odds on it being randomly skipped are now (2/3)^16.
    There's so much bad math here that I don't even know where to start.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muspel View Post
    There's so much bad math here that I don't even know where to start.
    I find a specific criticism is always a good place to start. Or, you could stick with flinging drive-by insults at people you don't know.

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    It's somewhat strange but not really unexpected. The odds you calculate of not getting Crucia's chosen in a specific 15 day period are calculated fine. But you are missing part of the big picture.

    The big picture being Storm Legion came out Nov. 13th of last year. So it's been out nearly 300 days now. If you were to calculate the odds of Crucia's Chosen not being the DRR 15 days in a row in a 300 day interval you'd probably find it to be more like 10-20%, maybe even higher. Unfortunately I can't wrap my head around and easy way to come up with the right percentile.

    So yes 15 days in a row without 1 of the DRR's is strange. But once your sample size gets large enough you would expect there to be some point in the sample where there are 15 straight days without 1 type of DRR.
    Last edited by MonkeysUncle; 09-05-2013 at 02:33 PM.

  12. #12
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    To be fair, the OP makes a good point. I often find myself screaming at a coin: "They say dice have no memory, but you OWE me, dammit! And that's why you have something other than a fifty-fifty chance to produce an outcome now!"

    I often use this to my advantage. I flip a coin until I get a bunch of heads in a row, then I walk up to someone and bet a bundle on the next flip that it'll end up tails, giving them outrageous odds. And since the odds of another heads flip is so very low, it's just gonna come up tails. So I obviously clean up using this method.

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